國(guó)產(chǎn)采棉機(jī)發(fā)展前景好

2020-05-09 09:11:22 來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)機(jī)工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì) 閱讀量：16997 評(píng)論

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】

        國(guó)產(chǎn)采棉機(jī)發(fā)展歷程
 
　　早在上世紀(jì)50年代，我國(guó)就開始引進(jìn)和開發(fā)機(jī)采棉技術(shù)，1996年以后新疆生產(chǎn)建設(shè)兵團(tuán)開始進(jìn)行機(jī)采棉的系統(tǒng)推進(jìn)， 2001年起機(jī)采棉進(jìn)入大面積推廣階段。伴隨國(guó)家對(duì)農(nóng)機(jī)購(gòu)置補(bǔ)貼的跟進(jìn)，2008年新疆農(nóng)機(jī)局開始對(duì)采棉機(jī)進(jìn)行補(bǔ)貼，2009年新疆地方開始使用采棉機(jī)。
 
　　2011-2017年間，采棉機(jī)補(bǔ)貼額度得到大幅提升，由初的2008-2011年的20萬(wàn)/臺(tái)補(bǔ)貼到2012年的30萬(wàn)/臺(tái)補(bǔ)貼再到2013-2014年的3-4行自走式30萬(wàn)/臺(tái)、5行及以上自走式40萬(wàn)補(bǔ)貼，并增長(zhǎng)至2015-2017年的3-4行自走式30萬(wàn)/臺(tái)、5行及以上自走式60萬(wàn)補(bǔ)貼等。伴隨國(guó)家對(duì)采棉機(jī)補(bǔ)貼的不斷增長(zhǎng)，激發(fā)了種植戶的購(gòu)買熱情，同時(shí)伴隨不斷增長(zhǎng)的勞動(dòng)力成本和日趨減少的農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力等綜合因素疊加，采棉機(jī)使用開始大幅增加。2015年以來(lái)我國(guó)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)開始進(jìn)入快速成長(zhǎng)階段。2018年以來(lái)采棉機(jī)行業(yè)出現(xiàn)供不應(yīng)求，國(guó)產(chǎn)采棉機(jī)應(yīng)用也得到快速增長(zhǎng)。
 
　　2008年，石河子貴航農(nóng)機(jī)裝備有限責(zé)任公司生產(chǎn)的5行采棉機(jī)開始批量投放市場(chǎng)，國(guó)產(chǎn)采棉機(jī)國(guó)產(chǎn)化有了零的突破。2014年后以新疆缽施然、現(xiàn)代農(nóng)裝、常州東風(fēng)為代表的國(guó)產(chǎn)3行采棉機(jī)陸續(xù)成為市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品。 2017年國(guó)產(chǎn)6行采棉機(jī)開始崛起。
 
　　采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)前瞻及發(fā)展空間
 
　　國(guó)家對(duì)采棉機(jī)的發(fā)展給予了大力鼓勵(lì)和支持，《全國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械化發(fā)展第十三個(gè)五年規(guī)劃》、《農(nóng)機(jī)裝備發(fā)展行動(dòng)方案(2016-2025)》、《中國(guó)制造2025》、《產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整指導(dǎo)目錄》(2019年本)等多項(xiàng)政策中均將采棉機(jī)作為發(fā)展重點(diǎn)產(chǎn)品，并給予購(gòu)置補(bǔ)貼，很大程度上促進(jìn)了我國(guó)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展。
 
　　采棉機(jī)行業(yè)屬于我國(guó)棉花種植全程機(jī)械化的短板和薄弱行業(yè)，長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)被外資品牌占據(jù)，近年來(lái)伴隨國(guó)內(nèi)企業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)技術(shù)突破，取得突飛猛進(jìn)的發(fā)展。展望未來(lái)，我國(guó)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)前景一片大好，國(guó)內(nèi)棉花機(jī)采增量市場(chǎng)、國(guó)內(nèi)棉花機(jī)采更新?lián)Q代及進(jìn)口替代市場(chǎng)、一帶一路出口市場(chǎng)等環(huán)節(jié)都充滿機(jī)遇。
 
　　1、我國(guó)棉花機(jī)采增量市場(chǎng)空間
 
　　我們分3行采棉機(jī)和6行采棉機(jī)兩類機(jī)型進(jìn)行測(cè)算，預(yù)計(jì)3行采棉機(jī)和6行采棉機(jī)兩種機(jī)型市場(chǎng)各50%，3行采棉機(jī)年采3,000畝計(jì)，6行采棉機(jī)年采6,000畝計(jì)，在全國(guó)棉花種植面積不變和不考慮各地種植地理?xiàng)l件差異的情況下，全國(guó)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)容量約為12,500臺(tái)。
 
　　2019年我國(guó)采棉機(jī)保有量為4,850臺(tái)，可見，未來(lái)我國(guó)擁有超過(guò)7,650臺(tái)的采棉機(jī)增量市場(chǎng)空間，未來(lái)我國(guó)采棉機(jī)增量市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約為160.7億元。預(yù)計(jì)未來(lái)10年內(nèi)我國(guó)采棉機(jī)增量市場(chǎng)需求在770臺(tái)/年以上。
 
　　2、更新?lián)Q代及進(jìn)口替代市場(chǎng)空間大
 
　　由于采棉機(jī)在短期內(nèi)連續(xù)工作的負(fù)荷非常大，一般8-10年左右就面臨機(jī)器淘汰更新，保有量的持續(xù)增加亦會(huì)為帶來(lái)新的更新?lián)Q代市場(chǎng)需求。伴隨更新?lián)Q代的發(fā)展，國(guó)產(chǎn)采棉機(jī)對(duì)進(jìn)口采棉機(jī)的替代將日趨顯現(xiàn)。
 
　　根據(jù)我國(guó)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)保有量，僅2019年就有約350臺(tái)的采棉機(jī)更新需求。采棉機(jī)年度更新?lián)Q代數(shù)量將伴隨保有量總數(shù)的不斷增加而不斷增長(zhǎng)。當(dāng)采棉機(jī)保有量達(dá)到一定程度后，采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展動(dòng)力將由增量市場(chǎng)為主轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)楦聯(lián)Q代市場(chǎng)為主。未來(lái)10年內(nèi)，我國(guó)采棉機(jī)更新需求約為500臺(tái)。假設(shè)10年后我國(guó)采棉機(jī)增量市場(chǎng)達(dá)到飽和，屆時(shí)我國(guó)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)將進(jìn)入以更新?lián)Q代為主的市場(chǎng)，10年后，我國(guó)采棉機(jī)更新?lián)Q代數(shù)量將達(dá)到約1,300+臺(tái)，10年后我國(guó)采棉機(jī)更新?lián)Q代市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約為27.3億元/年。
 
　　綜上分析，未來(lái)10年內(nèi)，我國(guó)采棉機(jī)增量市場(chǎng)需求在770余臺(tái)/年，更新?lián)Q代及進(jìn)口替代市場(chǎng)需求在500臺(tái)/年，更新?lián)Q代需求將伴隨保有量的增加逐年提升。當(dāng)保有量達(dá)到一定程度后(預(yù)計(jì)10年后)隨即進(jìn)入更新?lián)Q代市場(chǎng)，屆時(shí)年度采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)需求約為1,300+臺(tái)。
 
　　表：未來(lái)國(guó)內(nèi)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)空間
 
資料來(lái)源：中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)，綜合統(tǒng)計(jì)
 
　　3、我國(guó)未來(lái)售后服務(wù)市場(chǎng)
 
　　采棉機(jī)的售后服務(wù)主要包括采收期的機(jī)器維修、零配件更換服務(wù)和非采收期的機(jī)器保養(yǎng)等?，F(xiàn)階段，采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)售后服務(wù)已經(jīng)得到了行業(yè)企業(yè)的重視，但售后服務(wù)在采棉機(jī)企業(yè)收入中的比重不高。調(diào)研獲知，3行采棉機(jī)售后服務(wù)費(fèi)用(含機(jī)器維修、零部件更換、保養(yǎng))1年平均在3-5萬(wàn)元；6行采棉機(jī)售后服務(wù)費(fèi)用(含機(jī)器維修、零部件更換、保養(yǎng))1年平均在6-10萬(wàn)元。根據(jù)我國(guó)采棉機(jī)保有量情況，初步估算2019年我國(guó)采棉機(jī)售后服務(wù)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約為3.4-4.1億元。
 
　　我國(guó)采棉機(jī)行業(yè)售后服務(wù)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展還存在一定不足，我國(guó)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)企業(yè)在售后服務(wù)的投入、服務(wù)質(zhì)量及時(shí)效性上仍有很大的提升空間。伴隨采棉機(jī)向大型化、智能化、信息化的發(fā)展，未來(lái)采棉機(jī)的機(jī)、電、液壓一體化程度將更高，智能、信息模塊集成更為復(fù)雜，精密零配件的使用也將更為普遍，這對(duì)未來(lái)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)企業(yè)的售后服務(wù)提出了更高的發(fā)展要求。伴隨采棉機(jī)的市場(chǎng)保有量不斷提升，未來(lái)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)向存量市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)變過(guò)程中，企業(yè)的服務(wù)能力將是確保企業(yè)保持市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力的關(guān)鍵，未來(lái)售后服務(wù)市場(chǎng)將得到快速發(fā)展，未來(lái)采棉機(jī)售后服務(wù)市場(chǎng)也將成為行業(yè)企業(yè)重要的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)，預(yù)估未來(lái)我國(guó)采棉機(jī)售后服務(wù)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模約為8.8-10.6億元/年。
 
　　4、“一帶一路”為核心的化出口市場(chǎng)空間：
 
　　“一帶一路”沿線國(guó)家大都是傳統(tǒng)的棉花種植區(qū)域，中亞、南亞、西亞、西非等發(fā)展中國(guó)家占棉花種植面積超過(guò)50%，由于這些地區(qū)大多經(jīng)濟(jì)欠發(fā)達(dá)，農(nóng)業(yè)大多還未完成現(xiàn)代化，機(jī)械化率都較低，棉花機(jī)采率同樣處于較低水平。“一帶一路”促進(jìn)了我國(guó)和中亞、西亞、南亞等國(guó)的貿(mào)易往來(lái)，此舉為我國(guó)棉花種植機(jī)的出口帶來(lái)了良好的貿(mào)易環(huán)境和政策推動(dòng)力。
 
　　表：一帶一路沿線重點(diǎn)國(guó)家采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)空間估算
 
資料來(lái)源：美國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)部(USDA)
 
　　通過(guò)“一帶一路”沿線重點(diǎn)棉花種植國(guó)家采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)空間測(cè)算得出(單臺(tái)年采3,000畝計(jì)；市場(chǎng)潛力按50%-80%機(jī)采水平計(jì))，巴基斯坦、烏茲別克斯坦、土庫(kù)曼斯坦、土耳其、塔吉克斯坦和哈薩克斯坦六國(guó)未來(lái)采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)空間將達(dá)到12,350臺(tái)。其中中亞五國(guó)中4個(gè)棉花種植大國(guó)，烏茲別克斯坦、土庫(kù)曼斯坦、塔吉克斯坦和哈薩克斯坦，采棉機(jī)市場(chǎng)空間將達(dá)到5,600余臺(tái)。假設(shè)我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)采棉機(jī)自主品牌未來(lái)出口達(dá)到上述六國(guó)當(dāng)?shù)厥袌?chǎng)的50%的話，市場(chǎng)規(guī)模將達(dá)到6,175臺(tái)。
 
　　除此之外，“一帶一路”沿線還包括眾多棉花種植重點(diǎn)國(guó)家，包括南亞的印度，西非的馬里、貝寧、布基納法索、科特迪瓦、尼日利亞等都處于棉花種植面積前列的國(guó)家和地區(qū)，棉花機(jī)采率水平同樣處于很低的水平。未來(lái)伴隨“一帶一路”的貿(mào)易互通發(fā)展，這些國(guó)家也為我國(guó)采棉機(jī)自主品牌市場(chǎng)發(fā)展提供了無(wú)限可能。 (中國(guó)農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械工業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)信息與會(huì)員部)

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