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7月份AMI指數(shù)為47.2%，開啟下半年淡旺季轉(zhuǎn)換新階段

2024-08-05 13:22:04 來源：中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會信息咨詢部 閱讀量：12739 評論

導(dǎo)讀：7月份AMI的走勢與去年基本一致，自7月份開始，市場開始有啟動跡象，并開啟下半年淡旺季轉(zhuǎn)換的新階段。

　　【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場行情】中國農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械流通協(xié)會發(fā)布的2024年7月份中國農(nóng)機(jī)市場景氣指數(shù)(AMI)為47.2%，環(huán)比提升6.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比下降0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。從環(huán)比看，6個(gè)一級指數(shù)全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，其中效益指數(shù)提升幅度最大，比上月同期上漲10.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；從同比看，6個(gè)一級指數(shù)中除銷售能力指數(shù)、農(nóng)機(jī)補(bǔ)貼指數(shù)和人氣指數(shù)略有下降，其余全部呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢，其中，庫存指數(shù)提升幅度最大，為1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。本月經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間，其余5個(gè)一級指數(shù)繼續(xù)停留在不景氣區(qū)間。
 
　　特約分析師張華光認(rèn)為：正如我們上月的預(yù)測，7月份AMI環(huán)比上漲，同比基本與去年持平，景氣度有所回升，以47.2%的景氣度仍滯留于不景氣區(qū)間。AMI環(huán)比在經(jīng)歷了連續(xù)三個(gè)月下滑后，景氣度有所反彈，雖仍處于近三年同期的歷史低位，但降幅收窄，同比基本與去年持平。7月份AMI的走勢與去年基本一致，自7月份開始，市場開始有啟動跡象，并開啟下半年淡旺季轉(zhuǎn)換的新階段。
 
　　7月份，AMI環(huán)比上漲，同比下滑，景氣度仍位于三年來同期低位，但降幅收窄，呈現(xiàn)出以下幾個(gè)突出特點(diǎn)。
 
　　其一，拐點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)，環(huán)比上揚(yáng)。7月份，AMI環(huán)比上漲6.0個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，以47.2%的較高景氣度終結(jié)了環(huán)比“三連跌”下行走勢，開啟了增長模式。但同比依然下滑0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，雖降幅有所收窄，但仍然低于去年同期，說明今年的市場仍沒有達(dá)到去年的高度。
 
　　其二，效益大幅增長，運(yùn)行質(zhì)量提升。7月份，效益指數(shù)環(huán)比提升10.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，同比提升1.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，與2022年持平，以45.3%的景氣度繼續(xù)停留在不景氣區(qū)間，環(huán)比上升超過兩位數(shù)。環(huán)比較大幅度攀升主要得益于上月跌至低點(diǎn)后形成的“洼地”；同比提升意味著企業(yè)運(yùn)行質(zhì)量出現(xiàn)好轉(zhuǎn)，尤其是國四機(jī)型銷售占比出現(xiàn)較大提升。
 
　　其三，經(jīng)理人信心恢復(fù)，照亮下月市場。人氣指數(shù)環(huán)比提升7.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，意味著市場交易趨于活躍，為經(jīng)理人注入強(qiáng)大信心。經(jīng)理人信心指數(shù)以8.9個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的增幅挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間，照亮了下月的市場。下半年，收獲機(jī)械、耕整地機(jī)械、田間管理機(jī)械、收獲后處理機(jī)械、烘干設(shè)備等市場相繼進(jìn)入銷售旺季，成為市場的強(qiáng)大支撐。
 
　　其四，二級指數(shù)冰火同爐，環(huán)比多增少降。從監(jiān)測的5個(gè)二級指數(shù)看，7月份，環(huán)比呈現(xiàn)“3上2下”走勢特點(diǎn)。其中，田間管理機(jī)械和收割機(jī)指數(shù)環(huán)比均出現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)增幅，并挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間。與之相反，種植機(jī)械和耕整地機(jī)械進(jìn)入銷售淡季，環(huán)比出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。從同比看，收割機(jī)和種植機(jī)械指數(shù)同比呈現(xiàn)不同程度的上升，尤其是收割機(jī)指數(shù)，成為本月唯一環(huán)比同比均上漲的指數(shù)，且景氣度躍居景氣區(qū)間，為今年的市場帶來希望。
 
　　7月份，所監(jiān)測的10個(gè)三級指數(shù)的表現(xiàn)冷熱不均。環(huán)比：“7上3下”。其中，大型拖拉機(jī)、免耕播種機(jī)、旋耕機(jī)指數(shù)有所下滑外，其它全部上漲。同比：“4升6降”。其中，插秧機(jī)、遙控飛行噴霧機(jī)、自走履帶式以及輪式谷物聯(lián)合收割機(jī)指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的上漲，大中拖、深松機(jī)、旋耕機(jī)、免耕播種機(jī)、玉米收獲機(jī)指數(shù)出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。從細(xì)分市場來看，三大糧食作物收獲機(jī)市場表現(xiàn)均較為亮眼。
 
　　8月份，AMI環(huán)比、同比或出現(xiàn)不同程度的增長，挺進(jìn)景氣區(qū)間的概率較大。多數(shù)一、二、三級指數(shù)環(huán)比或出現(xiàn)小幅攀升。8月份正值農(nóng)機(jī)市場進(jìn)入旺季，成為月度景氣度的主要支撐。今年的市場在經(jīng)歷了去年大幅度的滑坡后，將進(jìn)入到一個(gè)漸進(jìn)式的“修復(fù)”階段，預(yù)計(jì)這種趨勢或延續(xù)到今年全年或明年。從AMI走勢規(guī)律看，8月份環(huán)比多數(shù)上漲，且經(jīng)理人信心有所恢復(fù)，市場信心回升，預(yù)示著8月份市場環(huán)比攀升的概率較大。
 
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