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玉米價(jià)格創(chuàng)新高,接下來(lái)還會(huì)再漲嗎?

2020-10-22 16:53:29 來(lái)源:農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)整理發(fā)布 閱讀量:34548 評(píng)論

導(dǎo)讀:今年玉米豐收已成定局,前期競(jìng)拍玉米陸續(xù)出庫(kù)上市。另外加上部分庫(kù)存稻谷小麥也可以用于飼料替代,供給是有保障的,玉米價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲缺乏支撐。

  【農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng) 市場(chǎng)行情】 10月21日,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部就2020年前三季度農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)舉行了新聞發(fā)布會(huì)。關(guān)于玉米價(jià)格近日創(chuàng)了四年來(lái)新高問題,農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部總經(jīng)濟(jì)師、發(fā)展規(guī)劃司司長(zhǎng)魏百剛表示,今年以來(lái),玉米價(jià)格總體呈上漲態(tài)勢(shì)。9月份,隨著華北、東北新產(chǎn)的玉米陸續(xù)上市,價(jià)格開始回落。國(guó)慶假期之后價(jià)格再次上漲,目前監(jiān)測(cè)到吉林部分地區(qū)企業(yè)掛牌收購(gòu)價(jià)每斤是1.12元左右。黑龍江部分地區(qū)是每斤1.07元左右。
 
  魏百剛分析近期玉米價(jià)格上漲,主要有三個(gè)方面原因:
 
  一是需求旺盛,多元主體收購(gòu)積極性比較高。主要是生豬生產(chǎn)加快恢復(fù),飼用玉米需求量明顯增加。同時(shí),玉米淀粉、酒精產(chǎn)品也在增加,加工企業(yè)和貿(mào)易商普遍看好玉米市場(chǎng),抬價(jià)收購(gòu)。
 
  二是成本增加,農(nóng)民惜售希望賣出好價(jià)錢。今年臺(tái)風(fēng)對(duì)東北玉米產(chǎn)量影響有限,但受災(zāi)地區(qū)玉米出現(xiàn)倒伏,收獲成本增加。據(jù)調(diào)研,倒伏玉米每畝機(jī)收費(fèi)要比正常年份增加100塊錢,嚴(yán)重倒伏地塊只能靠人工進(jìn)行收割。受成本增加影響,農(nóng)戶想要等價(jià)格再漲一點(diǎn)再出手。
 
  三是資本炒作,價(jià)格看漲預(yù)期增加。受新冠肺炎疫情影響,國(guó)內(nèi)外的投機(jī)資本對(duì)糧食市場(chǎng)炒作有升溫跡象。10月份以來(lái),國(guó)內(nèi)玉米期貨價(jià)格上漲比較明顯,貿(mào)易商和加工企業(yè)看漲預(yù)期增加,導(dǎo)致現(xiàn)貨價(jià)格聯(lián)動(dòng)上漲。
 
  總的看,玉米價(jià)格上漲是收儲(chǔ)制度改革以來(lái)的恢復(fù)性上漲,特別是在生產(chǎn)成本增加的情況下,價(jià)格適當(dāng)上漲具有一定的合理性。魏百剛判斷,今年玉米豐收已成定局,前期競(jìng)拍玉米陸續(xù)出庫(kù)上市。另外加上部分庫(kù)存稻谷小麥也可以用于飼料替代,供給是有保障的,玉米價(jià)格繼續(xù)上漲缺乏支撐。
 
  本文由農(nóng)機(jī)網(wǎng)(epigene.com.cn)整理發(fā)布,資料來(lái)源:農(nóng)業(yè)農(nóng)村部,如有侵權(quán)或異議請(qǐng)聯(lián)系我們。
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